We then looked at how long the peace lasted following each of these ethnic wars, to see whether war between the same opponents broke out again, and if so, how long it took. This is a measure of how fragile or stable the post-war peace is. We ran a number of different models and robustness tests using Cox regression survival analysis. But we could not confirm that sharing a religion makes it easier to end a war and then keep the peace. To the contrary, some results even indicated that the opposite may be the case (see the figure below), although these were shaky and not found in all models.
Thanks to Elizabeth Oldmixon for inviting us to write the post.